Doug Ford and the PCs are sitting pretty, the politics of ending masking and other mandates...
Doug Ford has the upcoming Ontario provincial election in the bag, for a number of reasons. Firstly, when there’s a Liberal government federally Ontario always elects the conservatives provincially. You can take it to the bank.
The Liberals ruled the roost in Ottawa from 1963 to 1984, with just one short nine month interval when Joe Clark’s Conservatives held power. Durging that time the Ontario Progressive Consvative party ruled Queen’s Park.
When Brian Mulroney’s PCs took over in Ottawa Ontario flipped over to David Peterson’s Liberals and then Bob Rae’s NDP. After Jean Chrétien’s Liberals took back control federally, Ontario opted for Mike Harris’ Conservative ‘Common Sense Revolution’. Stephen Harper’s nearly ten year run in Ottawa coincided with the rise of Liberal fortunes provincially under Dalton McGuinty and later Katherine Wynne. When Justin Trudeau’s Liberal’s took over in 2015 Ontario flipped back to the Conservatives at the first opportunity when they voted Ford into the Premier’s office in 2018.
If you’re wondering why Doug Ford talks up the Liberal federal government so often, now you know. It serves his interests. I don’t think Ford is the sharpest knife in the drawer by any stretch, but even a high school drug dealer can figure this out. If you’re a provincial conservative in Ontario the best thing you can have is a Liberal government in Ottawa.
That’s been the dynamic of the past fifty plus years in Ontario politics. But things evolve and that is where covid mandates like masking come in.
There are two nascent conservative parties in Ontario now, both with sitting members. One is ‘New Blue’ and the other is the Ontario Party. Both have and end to emergency mandates and measures as cornerstones of their party platforms. Fringe political parties are nothing new of course, even in provincial politics. There’s been Libertarian (meaning less government) and Christain focused parties before, but they’d never poll more than a single one percent collectively.
The most recent federal election however showed how much things can change in this crazy covid era.
Maxime Bernier’s People’s Pary of Canada (PPC) polled up around 5% of the vote in our most recent federal election, a level of support it took the Green Party over twenty years to achieve. The reason was opposition to all the restrictions and mandates imposed which was front and centre with the PPC.
Although there is not way to know for certain, it’s possible and maybe even likely that PPC support cost Erin O’Toole’s Conservative’s a handful of seats in our most recent federal election.
Doug Ford cannot afford to lose that much support to the New Blue and Ontario parties. And sticking with mandates like passports, gathering limits and masking would absolutely push people toward these nascent anti-mandate parties.
Ford and the PCs need a majority because of the dynamics of Ontario politics. The last Conservative premier in Ontario elected with a minority mandate was Frank Miller. His government fell after less than five months, replaced by the Liberals who were propped up by the NDP.
So those of us who realize the utter stupidity of face diapers can breathe easy for at least the next couple of months. After Ford has another majority mandate I would be surprised if he flip flopped on the mandates, although anything is possible given that he’d have a full four years before facing re-election.