Monkeypox by the numbers...
Testing levels have plummeted giving what might be a false sense that things are improving.
According to all the reporting the rate at which monkeypox cases are being confirmed through testing is trending downward, which on the surface is obviously good news.
The United States still leads the world in confirmed cases, but again, the growth rate has dropped significantly. But is this because of reduced rates of infection, or could it simply be that the testing levels have dropped.
As per the CDC’s own website testing peaked at 16,970 for the week ending August 20th with the positivity rate coming in at 24%. For the week ending August 27th testing fell to 13,868 with positivity down a touch to 23%. For the week ending September 03 the testing again dropped to just 10,693 with the positivity rate down another point to 22%. And finally for the week ending September 10th just 1,962 tests are reported with it noted that this was a “partial reporting week” with positivity still at 22%.
Here’s the source for anyone wanting to confirm:
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/2022-lab-test.html
Obviously things are far different than they were during the covid era when we saw drive in testing centres in an effort to test just about anything that breathed. It may be that demand for monkeypox tests have dropped, or it may be that people are having trouble accessing tests, or are declining to be checked for infection.
Given the stigma associated with monkeypox my suspicion is that there are a substantial number of individuals in a country like the United States who are opting not to get tested. Then if you look at the global data and find a country with a population like India reporting only 12 confirmed cases, or China with zero….well, needless to say I don’t have much confidence in the accuracy of those numbers.
An article published by medical researchers out of India includes this eye opening little snippet:
“The authors recommended new mRNA vaccines be developed before monkeypox is declared a pandemic”.
Note, the authors say “before” monkeypox is declared a pandemic, not “if” or in “case”. Currently the confirmed case numbers don’t come anywhwere near justifying the declaration of a pandemic, but if a country the size of the United States is only doing a few thousand tests per week, then it’s very possible that the confirmed numbers are just a tiny slice of a much larger outbreak.
We’ve seen how fast pharmaceutical companies and government regulators are willing to move in testing and approving novel “vaccines”. Is the drop in testing perhaps simply a political decision to allay any fears that might result from more widespread surveillance identifying far more significant outbreaks?
Here’s the link to an article detailing one individual’s experience with monkeypox. After experiencing flu like symptoms this man went to urgent care. But he wasn’t tested for monkeypox, instead they checked for covid and herpes as well as some other diseases, everything came back negative. When his infection later progressed to include the tell tale rash he opted not to get checked out, citing fear of infecting others and the possibility of a hospital stay. So while he is a case, he’s not an official or reported case.
I got monkeypox at my first Pride party in years. The physical pain was excruciating — but the intrusive feelings of self-loathing were worse.
Labratory conducted studies have shown the monkeypox virus to be present in airborne aerosols, but at this point it is not being reported as an airborne illness. Will that continue when humidity conditions change over the winter and airborne transmission becomes more conducive? Only time will tell.
With an incubation period that can be as long as three weeks the recent and very popular ‘Southern Decadence’ Gay Pride event down in New Orleans may only start showing an impact in another week or two.